Vision to Reality: The Reut Blog

The analysis of Aluf Benn in Ha’aretz on why it’s difficult to get people to understand the Iranian and demographic threats facing Israel relates to why issues are not dealt with even though they may already be known.

Benn writes that “It is hard to harness people to action when they do not identify a clear and present danger…The threats of the bomb and Palestinian demographics seem virtual, and the result is that there is no public pressure on the government to take action…”

The article is similar to what Predictable Surprises calls the Cognitive factor in why problems are not dealt with despite being known; Without ‘vividness,’ – the personal experiencing of a problem – leaders / society overly discount the future and rarely work to solve an issue.

Israel is currently facing two main threats: A security threat based on rocket fire on population centers etc (which requires staying in the West Bank) and a political threat revolving around the erosion of the two state solution (which requires withdrawing from the West Bank).

While the security threat is ‘vivid’ enough to be felt, the political threat is still under the radar.

Could this political threat constitute a Predictable Surprise?