Disagreement between Hamas and Fatah over when the next Palestinian elections will be held may have strategic significance for Israel.
Hamas has stated that it will not acknowledge Abu Mazen’s legitimacy as President of the Palestinian Authority (PA) after January 2009, when it believes his term in office is due to finish.
Hamas claims that new elections should be held in January 09′ since according to the PA’s Basic Law (which also serves as its temporary constitution) Abu Mazen finishes his Presidential term after 4 years. If elections are not held, the Presidency temporarily passes to the Speaker of the Parliament, Abd al-‘Aziz Dweik, who is currently held by Israel. If Dweik is not released, Hamas will appoint his deputy who is also a Hamas member.
Fatah meanwhile argue that elections should be held in January 2010 since the Palestinian election law calls for Presidential and Parliamentary elections to be held simultaneously 4 years after the date of the later. (For more see Nathan Brown). Since the Parliamentary elections were held in 2006 (a year after the Presidential ones), new elections for both should be held in January 2010.
How will this constitutional crisis coupled with Abbas’ weakness, the growing popularity of Hamas and the current deadlock in the political process influence the ability of Israel and the Palestinians to reach an agreement on ‘The Two State Solution’?
General
Amit Granek
Yuval Holtzmann
Ronit Gudes
Gidi Grinstein
Gaddy Weissman
Calev Ben Dor
Yossi Horesh
Dana Preisler
Omri Dagan
Eran Shayshon
Liran Bainvol
Merav Pick
Noa Ecker
Netaly Ophir
Yariv Mann
Reut Institute
Omri Zegen
Yael Weisz
Toni Hasson
Talia Gorodess
Gil Murciano
Anat Horowitz
Abed Assli
Daphna Kaufman
Shay Gurion
Elad Leshem
Aliza Petrack
Jessica Brandt
Yael Brendel
Martin Ben Moreh
yotamhacohen
Israel has a big decision to make and it will be one of the first that new PM Livni will have to make in the coming months. Unless Fatah and Hamas come to some sort of agreement regarding Abbas’s role as President of the PA, there is likely to be an all our battle for control and Israel will have to make a decision on whether to get involved and support Fatah and resist a Hamas takeover of the West Bank or to sit back and stay out of it. Israel may of course not have a choice as when the bullets start firing amongst the Palestinians, they usually get fired at Israel too as a way of bringing Israel into the battle and uniting both Fatah and Hamas against their common enemy. Israel will have an even harder choice of whether to resist this temptation to join in or not.
Despite the training Fatah has been receiving from both US and Israeli security personnel, with much success in reigning in street crime in tough West Bank towns such as Nablus and Jenin, Hamas arguably has the popular advantage amongst the people. It is also arguable whether or not the Fatah fighters, although they may have the weaponry and training, have the morale and will to fight against Hamas as it was this lack of morale in June 2007 that was one of the meain factors leading to Hamas taking over Gaza in the first place.
Interesting times are approaching and Novemeber until January will be a time of change and uncertainty.
[...] Palestinian elections. As of September 2008, Israeli political observes noted an erupting “constitutional crisis” in the Occupied Territories due to disagreement “between Hamas and Fatah over when the next [...]
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