Two articles over the weekend touched on the increasing erosion of the Two State Solution, a trend that poses a direct threat to Israel’s National Security.
Tom Friedman writes that while for the last 20 years he has heard the argument that “If we don’t get diplomacy back on track, it will be the end of the two-state solution” and never bought it, this time he is buying it.
Meanwhile, an op-ed in the Financial Times from Prince Turki al-Faisal suggests that Saudi patience is running out regarding its own initiative that provides normalized relations between Israel and the Arab world in return for the establishment of a Palestinian State.
These statements strengthen an already existing trend of Palestinian and Arab Inversion towards the Two State Solution.
Yet bearing in mind the structural reasons which currently make a Permanent Status Agreement near to impossible, (the Palestinian Constitutional Crisis, split between Gaza and the West Bank and gaps between Israel and the Palestinians over outstanding issues) how might Israel prevent the Two State Solution’s continuing erosion?
General
Amit Granek
Yuval Holtzmann
Ronit Gudes
Gidi Grinstein
Gaddy Weissman
Calev Ben Dor
Yossi Horesh
Dana Preisler
Omri Dagan
Eran Shayshon
Liran Bainvol
Merav Pick
Noa Ecker
Netaly Ophir
Yariv Mann
Reut Institute
Omri Zegen
Yael Weisz
Toni Hasson
Talia Gorodess
Gil Murciano
Anat Horowitz
Abed Assli
Daphna Kaufman
Shay Gurion
Elad Leshem
Aliza Petrack
Jessica Brandt
Yael Brendel
Martin Ben Moreh
yotamhacohen
You guys in Reut have been warning everyone in the last months of 2008 that the Palestinian Authority is about to collapse and that one-state is upon us. Well, January 9th is behind us (this is the day Mahmud Abbas term as head of the PA was about to expire), and as far as I know, there are no calls to replace him.
Is this threat over? Did the Israeli operation in Gaza stop short a Palestinian civil war?
Truth is i think its too early to say the lomg term consequences of Operation Cast Lead and whether without the fighting, the 9th of January would have been more significant…
However, regardless of this, the trends we at Reut have been following havent gone away;
More and more Palestinians who once supported a 2 State Solution now feel its not viable.
Increasing frustration with the Palestinian Authority as unable to provide for its citizens etc.
Decreased legitimacy of Abu Mazen to negotiate and sign an agreement with Israel
What continues to be missing is a ‘tipping point’ that could lead to the PA’s collapse or an inversion in the official position of the Palestinians towards the 2 State Solution.
Hopefully this tipping point will never come. But we believe the Government should be aware of the potential dangers
Calev
It may be valuable to have a look at the article on debatepedia on the two-state solution. Helps frame all the pros and cons and quotations.
http://wiki.idebate.org/index.php/Debate:_Two-state_solution_to_Israeli-Palestinian_conflict#Con