Vision to Reality: The Reut Blog

Demonstrations in Iran are unlikely to change the country’s nuclear policy. But they do point to the possibility that economic sanctions may work.
Riots in Iran have done little to abate Israeli concerns regarding the country’s nuclear program, and it remains very doubtful that the current demonstrations will prompt a significant change in Iranian policy. Instead, the current demonstrations are believed to be directly linked to the economic situation as well as to its poor image and status in the international arena which alienated the regime from increasing segments in the Iranian society.
In his famous book “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers“, Paul Kennedy suggests that great powers collapse when they are “overstretched” beyond their ability to maintain or expand their economic or military commitments – in other words, when their ambitions and security requirements are greater than what their resource base can provide for.
Thus, while yet to be considered a “Great Power”, the components of the Iranian effort to promote regional hegemony are overstretching. Iranian attempts to export the Islamic Revolution, strengthen its proxies in the Middle East, build a self reliant weapon industry and develop nuclear capabilities, have damaged the Iranian economy and collided with the regime’s interest to secure its stability (See also: Tension in Iran’s National Security Strategy).

Pyrrhic Victory for Ahmadinejad?

As opposed to mainstream thinking, current developments in Iran demonstrate that sanctions may work. Israel should put every diplomatic effort into catalyzing international action towards preventing the Iranian regime from obtaining necessary resources for its economic and political stability